BTC/USD technical analysis, July 17

17.07.2020 14:46:06

Bitcoin has been trading within a range of $400 for 3 weeks. The BTC/USD pair tried several times to rise above the $9400 level, but the attempts were unsuccessful. However, the $9000 level has repeatedly kept the price of Bitcoin from falling.

Skew.com data shows that Bitcoin volatility is at its lowest level in the past two years. And the realized volatility dropped to 28.3%.

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Most often, after a long period of low volatility, there is a period of the sharp breakout. And apparently, Bitcoin expects such a scenario. However, predicting the direction of a future breakout is difficult.

However, you can try to predict the direction of a possible breakout using technical analysis.

The Moving Average technical indicator with a period of 50 and MACD predicts a decline in the price of Bitcoin soon.

The BTC/USD pair has shown gains while is traded above MA 50. At the same time, after Bitcoin's price broke down the 50 week MA 50 in May 2018, it fell to a low of around $3300 by December 2018.

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On the other hand, after the BTC/USD pair broke above the MA 50 in May 2019, it was able to show growth. MA 50 provided support for the BTC/USD pair and it was able to rise above $11000 in 3 months.

Now, Bitcoin can retest Moving Average 50 as support. If the BTC/USD pair falls below $9000, it may eventually drop below the MA50.

On the daily chart of the BTC/USD pair, the MACD indicator shows the beginning of a bearish moving. As you know, the MACD indicator demonstrates the relationship between two moving averages. If the short-term moving average moves below the long one, then the MACD is showing a bearish signal.

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At the moment, MACD shows an increase in selling pressure in the market, it crosses its signal line (9-day moving average) and at the same time deviates from the baseline.